20 million manufacturing jobs will be replaced by robots in 2030
Will robots replace humans? will not. The more warehouse robots are used, the more job creations are created. Because robots don’t create robots, humans design, build, apply, and help them. The most important thing is that people and robots work together to bring more growth, and growth means more work.
Tye Brady, chief technologist at Amazon’s robotics department , is often quoted as the answer to whether robots replace humans , and is almost the politically correct answer.
Of course, this is not only morally correct, but Amazon’s experience also supports his argument. One of the world’s most densely populated companies, Amazon has added 80,000 employees to its robots. Employees who used to sort goods in warehouses have been trained as robot supervisors and “nanny”. Each employee looks after multiple robots at the same time, ensuring that the robot has something to move and repairs when the robot fails.
If we look at it for a longer period of time, the development of human history has repeatedly proved that increased productivity will create more social wealth, and then create more careers that are completely different from the past.
However, the process of replacing humans in certain areas of robots will still affect many people in a short period of time.
Founded in 1981, the Oxford Economics report, the world’s leading international forecasting consultancy, shows that by 2030, approximately 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide will be replaced by robots. The cruel reality is that displaced workers often seek logistics, construction, maintenance, and office administration, but these jobs are also very easy to replace with robots.
Reports show that each newly installed industrial robot will replace 1.6 workers, and areas with weak economic development, lack of professional skills and high unemployment are more vulnerable to the popularity of robots. Specifically, even in the same country, the area of unemployment in each newly loaded robot in areas lacking professional skills may be twice as high as in areas with higher professional skills. This is likely to further increase the gap between the rich and the poor and lead to political polarization.
The more mainstream view is that robots will affect a lot of occupations, from manufacturing workers to journalists and white-collar workers. But the Cambridge Institute of Economics believes that although robots are extending from factories to services, manufacturing is still the most influential area. This effect is particularly evident in China.
Since 2000, 1.7 million manufacturing jobs have been replaced by robots, including 400,000 in Europe, 260,000 in the US and 550,000 in China, with China developing the fastest.
In 2000, the number of newly installed robots in China accounted for only 0.1% of the world. Now, one out of every three new robots in the world is in China. At present, the Chinese robot market accounts for one-fifth. According to the current growth rate, by 2030, the number of industrial robots in China will reach 14 million units, far exceeding that of other countries.
This is related to the status of China’s manufacturing center. As China’s labor costs rise and robot prices fall, the manufacturing industry is beginning to introduce more robots. Foxconn is the leader of China’s manufacturing industry. As early as 2011, Guo Taiming proposed the “Million Robots” program. In 2016, he also stressed that Foxconn will replace 80% of workers with robots for up to 10 years.
In addition, some developed countries have moved their factories to China to accelerate the development of robots in China. Japan is one of the most advanced robots in the world, but since 2000, the number of domestic industrial robots has decreased by 100,000 units, mainly because of the decline in manufacturing in Japan and the shift in manufacturing, especially Moved to China.
The report shows that if the world’s robot installations increase by 30%, it will create 5 trillion GDP. For the government, while enjoying the economic growth brought by robots, it is necessary to prevent the gap between the rich and the poor from widening.